Not sure what specific rink you are talking about (doesnt matter), but it is a great point that all rinks go through cycles of being good, rebuilding, etc. just need to make sure you keep in the loop at what is happening, to make the best decision for your kid. Try to see what point in the cycle the team you want to play for, is in.
Good point on 2011 phc. They have the potential to pick up a lot of new kids for next year. if you plan to go there, what is your plan b if you dont make it. If you are on a team like that now, and your kid's spot might not be safe, what is your plan b?