Author Topic: Black Bear Rankings vs My Hockey Rankings  (Read 3568 times)

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Reply #10:
 January 03, 2024, 10:32:58 AM
NL games are only submitted to MHR if the manager does so, which I don't. Just like Travel Champs, they don't submit games to MHR a team manager must. We use paper score sheets and only submit them if it's used to serve a suspension or if a major penalty takes place. As far as everyone is concerned the game never really took place otherwise. All teams I schedule with agree ahead of time to that or they don't play us. We have won NL games by 5 and lost by 5, all the kids say they care about is playing someone different. I have scheduled non league games like this for yrs and never had a complaint from either side. I will also only play away NL games against teams in different leagues, mostly against teams we host with the same agreement. The one team we play a home and away game once a yr for the last several yrs. The kids have become friends with them on social and are always talking about their seasons and now cars and girls. Both teams and parents hang out before the game and go to eat after. Wish all teams would find a partner team like we found, which can be tough. The 1st time we met was at a tournament and it was a good game and good time being in the same hotel as well. The teams have had little turnover and the same coaches and managers since that 1st game.
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Reply #11:
 January 05, 2024, 11:49:29 AM
I'm kind of surprised that no one has noticed Black Bear's own math is way off. According to the AHF Krach ratings, Wissahickon is the best Bantam AA team in PA, with a krach of 187. This gives them a 93.939% chance of beating the Grundy Senators who have a krach of 12. Their hockey power rankings site ranks Wisshickon as the 4th best AHF team in PA with a Krach of 1 and, oddly, gives more than 4 dozen other teams the exact same krach rating, including the Grundy Senators.  This means that hockeypowersrankings.com gives Wissahickon only a 50% of a win vs. Grundy.  Hockeypowerrankings.com also gives the 311th ranked Howard Huskies, with a 0-33-0 record, a 50% chance against Wissahickon....really?!

If the district used black bear's site instead of mhr, the best team in PA according to AHF krach ratings doesn't make it to the qualifier.
 
Krach can't cross populations and it cannot include wins against unranked teams.  That is why hockeypowerrankings.com seperates tier 1 and tier 2 teams, and why they do not simply rank all teams in a single age group together like mhr. If you used krach to rank all bantam teams regardless of division, you would have crappy tier 2 teams ranked higher than much better tier 1 teams.
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Reply #12:
 January 05, 2024, 02:10:00 PM
I find MY HOCKEY far superior to Ken's Rating system. 

KRACH may work at the collegiate club level (I am not even sure of that statement) but it doesn't work well for youth hockey.

MHR has certain issues. I wish it would include a WIN factor, a big game factor, or a goalie factor.  Don't ask me how this could be done....I'm just a big dummy.
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Reply #13:
 January 06, 2024, 11:18:11 AM
I love MHR. Nothing like beating a team at a tournament 12-1 and dropping 3+ points because the max is 7. They need to fix it, at least give it a +/- of 0 very flawed system.
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Reply #14:
 January 07, 2024, 01:43:43 AM
I love MHR. Nothing like beating a team at a tournament 12-1 and dropping 3+ points because the max is 7. They need to fix it, at least give it a +/- of 0 very flawed system.

This is mathematically impossible. Your rating and your opponent rating is a season average, so even a -3 +/- in one game couldn't move the mhr rating more than a few hundreths of a point. And be real, if you get a -3 +/- in a 12-1 win, you never used mhr to seed your tournament to begin with, so why even care what mhr says? Your example would be the equivelent of the Bantam Major Jr. Flyers playing the Team Philadelphia Bantam A team (to get a -3 +/- on a 7 goal differential the teams would have to be this far apart in ratings)... if you're playing tournaments like that, you've got bigger problems. (You're also ignoring the fact that in Krach, you can beat a lower ranked team and still lower your Krach rating...)

Krach cannot determine odds between groups of teams with no crossplay. Black Bear tries to overcome this by ranking Tier 1 and Tier 2 teams seperately, and by only ranking AA/national bound tier 2 teams, but the flaw is still there. Krach is accurate in AHF or EJ ratings becuase there is cross play. An example in the AHF: the Bantam AA St Louis Knights beat Team Philly this season and currently has 9.6:1 odds against them. Becuase Team Philly has played the Lehigh squad, and has 1:1 odds against them, Krach can determine that the Knights have similar 9.6:1 odds in their upcoming matchup with Lehigh. When you have groups of teams with no crossplay this assumption isn't true.


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Reply #15:
 January 08, 2024, 08:44:20 AM
I can see what he is saying with it being flawed.
               w/l    score   diff    op rating    points      +/-
       W   4 - 2      2       77.81       79.81    -3.30
                W   8 - 0      7       74.99       81.99    -1.12                                 
                L   3 - 5     -2       83.79       81.79    -1.32
Some examples from our team. won by 2 to team pretty close but lower in ratings and +/- dropped, won 8-0 a max of 7 goal differential and ended up -1.12. I know you don't drop the -1.12 but no negative should be there if you win by more than the max diff..  Lost to a team pretty close but higher and dropped. Notice the difference in the of 2 points between the close win and close lose. Something just seems off. 2 pt MHR difference, win by 2 drop -3.30 and 2pt difference, lose drop 1.32. The team that beat us 4-2 went up 1.32 but yet we dropped 3.30 winning by 2.
   
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Reply #16:
 January 08, 2024, 09:33:51 AM
"I love MHR. Nothing like beating a team at a tournament 12-1 and dropping 3+ points because the max is 7. They need to fix it, at least give it a +/- of 0 very flawed system."

Why are you playing a team 10 goals behind  you in the My Hockey Ranking?  Sandbagging much?   

You are complaining because your sandbagging wasn't rewarded.

How about you play at the proper level?  That's an idea....



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Reply #17:
 January 08, 2024, 09:54:21 AM
I can see what he is saying with it being flawed.
               w/l    score   diff    op rating    points      +/-
       W   4 - 2      2       77.81       79.81    -3.30
                W   8 - 0      7       74.99       81.99    -1.12                                 
                L   3 - 5     -2       83.79       81.79    -1.32
Some examples from our team. won by 2 to team pretty close but lower in ratings and +/- dropped, won 8-0 a max of 7 goal differential and ended up -1.12. I know you don't drop the -1.12 but no negative should be there if you win by more than the max diff..  Lost to a team pretty close but higher and dropped. Notice the difference in the of 2 points between the close win and close lose. Something just seems off. 2 pt MHR difference, win by 2 drop -3.30 and 2pt difference, lose drop 1.32. The team that beat us 4-2 went up 1.32 but yet we dropped 3.30 winning by 2.
   

AAA teams have figured this out a long time ago.  That's why good AAA teams don't play opponents ranked way lower than them (AKA AA teams).  They want to play opponents ranked higher than them and keep the score close. Schedulers and the schedule make a big difference in the MHR.

This is also one of the criticisms that Black Bear is launching against MHR.

IMO, at least the MHR is comprehensible and understandable. KRACK is neither.  And who do you trust more?
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Reply #18:
 January 08, 2024, 10:14:42 AM
"I love MHR. Nothing like beating a team at a tournament 12-1 and dropping 3+ points because the max is 7. They need to fix it, at least give it a +/- of 0 very flawed system."

Why are you playing a team 10 goals behind  you in the My Hockey Ranking?  Sandbagging much?   

You are complaining because your sandbagging wasn't rewarded.

How about you play at the proper level?  That's an idea....




It's called a tournament. We were also the 1st team to register, we must be really bad at sandbagging because we didn't win. We are an A team and play in A tournaments, not near the top team in our league either. We don't pick who goes in a tournament we go in or the schedule the tournament organizers make. If you have the power to pick what teams go in a tournament with your team and how the schedule is made please let me know how you do it, I'd love to have the control you have.
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Reply #19:
 January 08, 2024, 10:49:29 AM
I can see what he is saying with it being flawed.
               w/l    score   diff    op rating    points      +/-
       W   4 - 2      2       77.81       79.81    -3.30
                W   8 - 0      7       74.99       81.99    -1.12                                 
                L   3 - 5     -2       83.79       81.79    -1.32
Some examples from our team. won by 2 to team pretty close but lower in ratings and +/- dropped, won 8-0 a max of 7 goal differential and ended up -1.12. I know you don't drop the -1.12 but no negative should be there if you win by more than the max diff..  Lost to a team pretty close but higher and dropped. Notice the difference in the of 2 points between the close win and close lose. Something just seems off. 2 pt MHR difference, win by 2 drop -3.30 and 2pt difference, lose drop 1.32. The team that beat us 4-2 went up 1.32 but yet we dropped 3.30 winning by 2.
   

AAA teams have figured this out a long time ago.  That's why good AAA teams don't play opponents ranked way lower than them (AKA AA teams).  They want to play opponents ranked higher than them and keep the score close. Schedulers and the schedule make a big difference in the MHR.

This is also one of the criticisms that Black Bear is launching against MHR.

IMO, at least the MHR is comprehensible and understandable. KRACK is neither.  And who do you trust more?
I agree with what your saying and I don't schedule teams way lower. These 3 examples are all league games, we had no choice in playing them and I admit I don't fully get the system. Just can't wrap my head around the +/- when the 2pt. MHR difference was the same between the 2 games.

And for the other two posting it's hard to get even quality play in most tournaments. I know MyHockey Tournaments use their MHR and will disinvite a team if enough teams are registered if their MHR is much lower than the rest, happened to us once we were just below 80 and the other teams were 84 and higher. MyHockey transferred us from Pitt to DC. Another year we played against low AA teams in A brackets at My Hockey tournaments because they thought it was a fair ranking, which it was won 1 lost 1.Other tournaments don't care and just want the spots filled.
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