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Author Topic: DVHL Sandbagging  (Read 6106 times)

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DVHL Sandbagging
Topic: March 19, 2019, 10:01:15 PM



This should generate some discussion.

Looking at the last 5 years at the 12U, 14U, and 16U age groups, you can see some clear patterns with the clubs.  For me, I like clubs that challenge their players and teams and will field AA teams when they have enough teams at an age group.

I split the clubs into four categories with regard to sandbagging; Never, Rarely, Occasionally, Frequently.  It's subjective but there is data backing these up.

NEVER
Blazers, Ducks, Hershey, Ice Dogs

RARELY
Kings, Palmyra, Quakers, Wildcats

OCCASIONALLY
Chester, Delco, Snider, Grundy, Jr Blue Hens, Colonials, York

FREQUENTLY
Haverford:  At the PW level, they have fielded AA teams each of the last 5 years.  3 of the last 4 years, their 2nd team has played A-American with an avg Winning PCT of 0.84.  A - National one of these years perhaps?
At the Bantam level, they have had a AA team 4 of last 5 years.  18-19 they had three teams and their top team played A-National with a winning PCT of 0.83.  Their 2nd team every year either played B or A-American with a an winning PCT of 0.78.  Players could be challenged more.
No real issues at Midget level.

Lancaster:  last couple years have been bad.
At the PW age group for 18-19, had three teams #1 team played A-National with a 1.00 Win PCT.  #2 team played A-American with a 0.80 Win PCT.
At the Bantam age group, last two years they've had three teams.  Top team played A-National with winning PCT's of 0.91 and 0.94.
No issues at the Midget level.

Lehigh Valley:  many examples of having teams play down when enough teams are in an age group to challenge players.  Examples at all age levels.

Wissahickon:  Smaller club but winning seems more important than challenging players.  Many examples of teams playing lower levels to accumulate wins.  Their top Bantam team in 18-19 played A-American with three teams for the club at the age group.  Team went undefeated.

ADMIN EDIT: Image added to post by administrator.
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Reply #1:
 March 19, 2019, 11:43:10 PM
Just some random thoughts:
If your top team is playing AA, I don't give a crap what level the next team at that age level plays at. So I have no problem with Haverford. If you don't have a AA team and you run over everyone in what ever division you are playing you are doing your kids no favors. Some organization just like chasing trophies and we all know Lancaster is one of them. Never seen the Jr Blue Hens sandbag... partly because the ducks take their best kids before they ever have a chance.  If an organization only has one team at an age group, I generally would give them a pass regardless their record because AA is hard to commit to when everyone that shows up for tryouts makes your top (one and only) team. 
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Reply #2:
 March 20, 2019, 09:37:18 AM
Snider needs to be moved into frequently. Has anybody ever seen a AA Snider team? They have more players to choose from than any other club in the league.
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Reply #3:
 March 20, 2019, 10:00:08 AM
Snider has had AA teams.  No success at all in the last five years.  Winning PCT in the 0.20's or below for every team.

12U:  14-15, 15-16, 17-18
14U:  15-16
16U:  14-15, 15-16, 16-17

Most of the time their placement is appropriate, just an occasional misstep.
 :sleepy:
14U: 15-16 year, 2nd of 3 team played B with a Win PCT of 0.87.  17-18 year top team, of 3, played A-National, 0.75 Win PCT.

16U: 17-18 year, top team played A-National with Win PCT 0.73.

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Reply #4:
 March 20, 2019, 10:08:23 AM
These are some interesting figures. Is this data from myhockeyrankings? Asking because those stats are mixed with tournament and non-league games which do not count against league data.
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Reply #5:
 March 20, 2019, 10:32:57 AM
Snider needs to be moved into frequently. Has anybody ever seen a AA Snider team? They have more players to choose from than any other club in the league.

I have actually seen it a few time and it has never worked out for them.
Last season they had one of the best 16A National teams. I think they may have advanced to districts, can't remember, but seeing them play a few times they would have gotten destroyed at AA. They had 2 really good players that would have competed fine at AA, but the rest of the team would have struggled. I know people say you should always play tougher competition, it makes the kids better, blah, blah, but there is that fine line between competing and being overmatched.
i thought 16A National was great this year. Of the top 6, I don't think anyone sandbagged. Jr Pens, Delco. Lehigh and Lancaster had strong teams top to bottom, but no one that really stood out as an AA player. Hawks and Colonials had some of the better players in the division, some of who pretty much have only ever played AA, but both also had B level players on the bottom 1/3 of their rosters.
Sure, these 6 teams would have competed at AA with those bottoms teams who probably shouldn't been in AA - York, Delco, Balzers, but would have been killed by the top half.

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Reply #6:
 March 20, 2019, 10:34:31 AM
MyHockey gives a better idea of sandbagging though if you're looking at team ratings. If you're a team consistently finishing with a higher rating than those teams playing a level higher than you, you're probably sandbagging.

I'm not entirely sure where the data is breaking up the teams between "Rarely" & "Occasionally" but this isn't really telling us anything we don't know. The DVHL has plenty of sandbagging (I'd venture to guess like most leagues). We know we have VPs assigned to each level who has discretion beyond the placement rules, but we also know our executive committee is basically useless.
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Reply #7:
 March 20, 2019, 11:02:19 AM
MHR is a good benchmark but all games are not entered which can create some distortion.  That is why I prefer to use actual DVHL standings; you get every league game.
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Reply #8:
 March 20, 2019, 11:22:53 AM
DVHL consistently has weak years in some divisions. That's why I don't like it. It's hard to guess when that's going to be sometimes. A team my have been appropriate for a level basing it off the competition the year prior, but your year may be completely different.
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Reply #9:
 March 23, 2019, 08:17:42 AM
Chester County could write the guide on how to win championships by sandbagging this year.
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